El Supuesto: Amara’s Law in Web 3
By Diego Jimenez Vergara @ EPIC Lab
Amara’s Law is an idea formulated by Roy Amara, the co-founder of the Institute for the Future, and it refers to the tendency of people to overestimate the impact of a new technology in the short term and underestimate its impact in the long term. This law has been observed in many fields, from computer science to biotechnology.
The concepts of Web 1, 2, and 3 refer to the state of development and capability of networks, characterizing their evolution. Web 1.0 refers to static sites, like the Yahoo! of the 1990s, which was a basic directory of pages containing information you could only read. Web 2.0 is also known as the social era, characterized by interactive sites and data stored and sold by corporations like Facebook. Web 3.0 is a paradigm that envisions decentralized, modular, and customizable applications.
Web 3, also known as the “Decentralized Web,” is a new approach to creating online applications and services based on technologies like blockchain, digital assets, and smart contracts. Web 3 aims to create a fairer and more open Internet, where users have greater control over the ownership and use of their data, their digital footprint, and their privacy in general.
After the launch of ChatGPT, society today is focused on artificial intelligence and it seems that nobody remembers anything about NFTs or Bitcoin. But just a few months ago, the FOMO caused by Elon tweeting about Dogecoin or a friend selling their NFTs for thousands of dollars was very real.
We are seeing how Web 3 has been overestimated in some aspects and underestimated in others. For example, some have predicted that Web 3 will completely transform the way we interact online and that it will displace major tech companies, giving way to horizontal, community-driven “redarquias,” but today I don’t plan to stop using Meta’s or Google’s services. Although Web 3 certainly has the potential to transform the digital economy, the adoption of this technology is still complicated and it is not obvious whether it will completely replace Web 2.
On the other hand, some have underestimated the long-term impact of Web 3. Although it may not fill your Twitter feed, every day more and more applications are being developed on these new platforms, and it is possible that we will see a fundamental shift in how we think about data ownership, privacy, and online security. Web 3 has the potential to democratize access to online services and enable greater user participation in the digital economy.
In conclusion, Amara’s Law is an important idea to keep in mind when it comes to Web 3 and all “new” technologies. While some may be overestimating the short-term impact of this new technology, it is also important to remember that its true impact could take years to materialize.
If you’re interested in being part of the Web 3 ecosystem, don’t forget to follow @EPICLab on social media to stay informed about this semester’s relevant events.